Introduction to The Draft Board
Welcome to a new series of articles – The Draft Board. Over the next several months, this series will seek to uncover trends from the 2014 – 2018 fantasy football rookie drafts – that is to say, the five drafts that would have preceded the founding of the Nilbog Fantasy League.
Volume one will look at what the value of draft picks are, by round, to aid in trade negotiations. Issue one will specifically be looking at first round draft picks, and how they’ve panned out.
This series will use 5 grades to determine how impactful a player has been in fantasy football. The grades are as follows.
| Grade | Description | Examples |
| Grand Slam | A player who, within their rookie contract, becomes a foundational player to your fantasy team. These are your RB1s, WR1s, QB ½s, and TE½s.* | Michael Thomas; Ezekiel Elliott |
| Strong Hit | A player who is a reliable fantasy starter. These players provide multiple seasons where they’re regulars in your lineup. | Sammy Watkins; Carlos Hyde |
| Weak Hit | Usually a player who is a regular flex option. They may not have any time as a top option at their position, but they provide much needed roster depth. Alternatively, it may refer to a player who had an impressive season, but was otherwise a disappointment. | Kelvin Benjamin; Jay Ajayi; Will Fuller |
| Mostly Bust | A player who is not fantasy relevant for most their career, but may have had a season as a flex option; or may become an important handcuff. | Corey Davis; Nelson Agholor |
| Total Bust | A player who fails to ever be fantasy relevant. Likely out of the league before their rookie contract expires. | Bishop Sankey; Cody Latimer |
Five Years of First Round Picks
For this article, I looked at the first round picks (by average draft position) of the rookie drafts in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. At 16 picks per round, that’s a total of 80 players. Here’s what I found:
- 20% were Grand Slams
- 22.5% were Strong Hits
- 22.5% were Weak Hits
- 13.75% were Mostly Busts
- 21.25% were Total Busts
This means that, generally speaking, first round draft picks are a roll of the five sided dice. On the one hand, this may seem discouraging. A 35% chance of rolling a bust may seem high in a round where you’re expecting to land a cornerstone player. But most the draft will be busts, so a 35% rate is relatively low. On the other hand, a 20% chance of landing an absolute stud is pretty similar to choosing a player from the third or fourth rounds of a re-draft.
Let’s look at only high first round picks. A high first round pick is taken in the top half of the first round; meaning they are one of the first 8 off the board. Out of 40 players:
- 25% were Grand Slams
- 27.5% were Strong Hits
- 15% were Weak Hits
- 17.5% were Mostly Busts
- 15% were Total Busts
Draft position matters. The top eight in a draft have a statistically significant higher chance of becoming a long term startable player compared to the final eight in round one. If we narrow the range even further, and look at only the top four taken in each draft, the trend [predictably] continues. Out of 20 players:
- 40% were Grand Slams
- 25% were Strong Hits
- 10% were Weak Hits
- 5% were Mostly Busts
- 20% were Total Busts
Taking a player in the top four is akin to having a second round draft pick in a re-draft, albeit with a slightly higher total bust chance. But there’s one draft that is bringing up the total bust rate.
- 2014 had 3 total busts in the first round
- 2015 had 4 total busts in the first round
- 2016 had 8 total busts in the first round
- 2017 had 1 total bust in the first round
- 2018 had 1 total bust in the first round
2016 was an absolute outlier of a year in terms of highly drafted rookies missing the mark. Not only did half of the round end up as total busts, but three of the top four players were total busts. It’s a topic for a different Draft Board, so I won’t get too into it here, but here’s how the total bust rate changes if you take out 2016.
- First round: 11.25%
- First 8: 5%
- First 4: 5%
If we assume 2016 is a fluke year, as opposed to a regression to the mean, then the chance of taking a player in the first round who is never fantasy relevant is only about one-in-nine. That changes to just one-in-twenty if the pick comes from the first half of the round.
Placing a Value on Chance
The process of placing a value on a draft pick is inherently difficult because draft picks are essentially lotto tickets with unknown odds. So let’s think of it like the following:
Is a WR1 or RB1 worth trading for a first round pick? Well, since your chance of getting another player of that caliber for the pick is only 20%, probably not. So how many picks would it take to be worth a WR1 or RB1? Obviously, this will depend in part on the age of the player, contract situation, and team makeup. But generally, a top player is probably worth around 3 first round picks. This gives a 49% chance of replacing the player with somebody of equal caliber, while also leaving open the chance of obtaining additional roster depth to compensate for the risk that all the picks bust.
Is a WR2 or RB2 worth trading for a first round pick? The chance of landing a player of at least equal value for the pick is 42.5%, just under calling heads on a coin toss. The chance of upgrading is 20%. Of course, it may take a year or two for your drafted player to actually reach fantasy relevance, which means a regular starter is worth around 2 first round picks. This gives a 67% of replacing the player with somebody of equal value or greater value, a 36% chance to upgrade, and offers an additional opportunity to add a second piece for depth – compensating for the loss of a player who is already making an impact.
Is a FLX player worth trading for a first round pick? Probably. It depends on the player and team makeup, but there’s a two-in-three chance the pick will be turn out to be someone of equal value, as well as a considerable chance the draft selection will end up as an upgrade.
Is a bench player – fantasy relevant but rarely started – worth trading for a first round pick? Yes. Chances are low that a first round pick would turn out worse, and the odds are in your favor for a considerable upgrade if you can sacrifice short-term bench depth.
Future Installments
Volume 1 – Issue 2 will look at the value of second round draft picks. Future volumes will include insight into how long it takes for draft selectees to turn into fantasy relevant players; looks at Hit vs Bust rate by position; and will continue to examine ways in which pick trading can be analyzed.
*A “1” designation after a position (Ex: WR1; RB1) refers to a top 16 player at their position. A ” ½” designation refers to a top 8 player at their position.
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