Welcome to the second issue of The Draft Board. This edition will continue the analysis of issue 1 by looking at second round rookie picks through the same lens. Below is a reminder of the terminology that will be used to categorize picks.
| Grade | Description | Examples |
| Grand Slam | A player who, within their rookie contract, becomes a foundational player to your fantasy team. These are your RB1s, WR1s, QB ½s, and TE½s. | Patrick Mahomes; Davante Adams |
| Strong Hit | A player who is a reliable fantasy starter. These players provide multiple seasons where they’re regulars in your lineup. | Tyler Lockett; Kenny Golladay |
| Weak Hit | Usually a player who is a regular flex option. They may not have any time as a top option at their position, but they provide much needed roster depth. Alternatively, it may refer to a player who had an impressive season, but was otherwise a disappointment. | John Brown; Kenyan Drake |
| Mostly Bust | A player who is not fantasy relevant for most their career, but may have had a season as a flex option; or may become an important handcuff. | Devin Funchess; Andre Williams |
| Total Bust | A player who fails to ever be fantasy relevant. Likely out of the league before their rookie contract expires. | David Cobb; DeAndre Smelter |
Valuing Second Round Picks
Just like in issue one, I looked at the first round picks (by average draft position) of the rookie drafts in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. At 16 picks per round, that’s a total of 80 players. Here’s what I found:
- 6.25% were Grand Slams
- 15% were Strong Hits
- 12.5% were Weak Hits
- 23.75% were Mostly Busts
- 42.5% were Total Busts
The average second round is likely to contain about 1 Grand Slam, 2 Strong Hits, 2 Weak Hits, 4 Mostly Busts, and 7 Total Busts. There was no meaningful correlation between high second round picks performing better than low second round picks.
The easiest way to valuate a second round pick is in relation to a first round pick. A second round pick is probably worth somewhere between ½ and ⅓ of a first round pick based on the following:
- A first round pick is three times more likely to be a Grand Slam
- A first round pick is 50% more likely to be a Strong Hit
- A first round pick is twice as likely to be a Weak Hit
- A first round pick is half as likely to be a Mostly Bust
- A first round pick is half as likely to be a Total Bust
Two second round picks may or may not be worth a first round pick, depending on the roster construction of the two teams trading picks. But three second round picks have a high chance of replicating the success of a first round pick, with the chance of adding additional depth.
Is a WR1 or RB1 worth trading for a second round pick? In the last article, I asserted that a top tier player is worth around three first round picks, and pointed out that this gives you a 49% chance of landing a Grand Slam. So how many second round picks would it take to reach the same chance? Ten.
Ten second round picks would most likely result in a couple skill players who develop into top 24 at their position, a few that have a decent season or two before dipping into irrelevance, and four or five players who never end up in a starting lineup. So, think of ten second round picks as equivalent to offering Kerryon Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Jamaal Williams, Corey Davis, and Nyheim Hines for Nick Chubb. If that seems like an overpay to you, then a foundational player may be worth closer to seven second round picks. If that seems like an underpay, maybe closer to twelve. Regardless, it’s unlikely you’ll ever be in a position to trade that many second round picks in the first place.
Instead, it’s probably better to think of second round picks in terms of bolstering trade offers that already include firsts. If you view a top skill player as worth two first round picks, and your trade partner views a top skill player as worth three first round picks, then offering two first rounds and a second round is a fair way to meet in the middle.
Is a WR2 or RB2 worth trading for a second round pick? In the last article, I asserted that a top tier player is worth around two first round picks, and pointed out that this gives you a 67% chance of landing at least a strong hit. So how many second round picks would it take to reach the same chance? Four. Considering two of those four picks would be unlikely to ever crack a starting lineup, that many picks still offers ample opportunity to find a player of equal or greater value, as well as possibly picking up an additional flex player.
Is a FLX player worth trading for a second round pick? A first round pick gives you around a 65% chance of getting a flex player or better. It would take Two second round picks to reach an equivalent chance. It depends on the player, but a running back outside the top 32, or a wide receiver outside the top 48, is likely a fair trade for two second round picks – especially if you’re willing to gamble on an upgrade.
Is a bench player – fantasy relevant but rarely started – worth trading for a second round pick? Probably. A second round pick has about a two-in-three chance of having at least one fantasy relevant season, and a one-in-three chance of becoming an upgrade.
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