The storied consolation bracket. For four exhilarating seasons it has determined which team will be rewarded with the #1 pick. But with the elimination of the lottery, how do we determine who gets picks 4-10? And why is it impossible to create pick assignments that are both fair and intuitive?
Part One: Goals of Pick Assignment
Picks in the Real NFL
We’ll begin with the goals of assignment, which may seem obvious. But if it were obvious, I wouldn’t need to write a fucking manifesto on it. Pick assignment methodology is more contentious than it may seem.
In the NFL, the goal of pick assignment is incredibly straightforward – facilitate bad teams to become better by allowing them to draft before good teams. Therefore, the worse you are in a year, the better your draft pick.
However, NFL teams have 53 players (more before cuts) spread across 20+ different positions. A more complex team structure means a less complex pick assignment is fair because the talent is amortized across a larger spectrum, and therefore teams are not too severely disadvantaged waiting for the 32nd pick. Nor can a team getting the first overall pick too-dramatically improve their talent, regardless of what pundits try to insist every draft season.
Picks in the NBA
But let’s look at a league more analogous to Nilbog – the NBA. NBA rosters have 15 players spread across 5 positions. Similarly, Nilbog rosters have 16 players spread across 4 positions. The small roster size means that a single player can have a giant positive impact, and picking late is determinatively detrimental. NBA pick assignment is very similar to the NFL with one major difference – the draft lottery.
The NBA began experimenting with a draft lottery in 1966, where they spent two decades deciding who got the first overall pick by flipping a coin. Seriously, look that shit up. A fucking coin. The modern NBA draft uses a weighted lottery to decide what order all non-playoff teams draft. A replica of this weighted lottery is the same system that was used in Nilbog for the 2020 – 2022 drafts.
The worse a team performs in the NBA, the higher chance they have of receiving a higher pick – as opposed to just outright getting a higher pick like in the NFL. This system discourages tanking because it does not guarantee a high pick for low performing teams. Bad teams still generally get higher picks while, simultaneously, much of the incentive for losing is removed.
Picks in Nilbog
Draft picks in Nilbog have considerably more complex goals than just making bad teams good.
- Reign in good teams to prevent dynastic hegemony
- Lift up middling teams to playoff level
- Save bad teams from multi-season mediocrity
- Create an incentive to win every game
In 2021, GMs voted to remove the Nilbog draft lottery beginning in 2023, and thus a new system that directly linked finishing position with draft position had to be created.
Part Two: Creating Pick Assignment
Goal #1: Reign in Good Teams
Good teams should be given bad picks to prevent snowballing. Short dynasties are acceptable, but the positive impact one stud player can have means great teams need to be handicapped with average-or-worse players to prevent snowballing into unstoppable behemoths. This is the easiest goal to achieve.
We will define a “good” team as one of the six teams that make the playoffs. This should be an un-controversial demarcation as to what decides a good team. The best team is unequivocally the team that wins the Goblin Bowl. The best team should receive the harshest handicap, and therefore should pick last – 16th.
Following that logic, the team that comes in second place is the second best team and should receive the second harshest handicap. They will pick 15th. Third and fourth will follow this same logic, picking 14th and 13th respectively.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| DReid | 1 | 16 |
| TSteggs | 2 | 15 |
| rkmay | 3 | 14 |
| TigersMom | 4 | 13 |
Fifth place should pick 12th then, right? No. Remember the fourth goal – “create an incentive to win every game.” The commissioner has two ways to create incentive – cash winnings and draft picks. The teams in the matchups for 1st and 3rd have a cash winnings incentive. However, the budget does not allow for a cash award to the winner of the fifth place matchup. Therefore, these teams will play for draft picks so that they each have something to play for.
These are still good teams, so we want them to have bad draft picks. The next two worst draft picks available are 11th and 12th. The winner of 5th place will get the better pick so they have an incentive to continue trying to win their final game of the year.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| plumbobsquarepants | 5th | 11 |
| playboyheff | 6th | 12 |
Goal #2: Lift Up Middling Teams
Assigning First Pick
When Nilbog began, there was a fear of the dreaded “perennial middle.” The perennial middle is a team who often finishes just outside the top six. They struggle against the good teams in the league and narrowly fail to make the playoffs, but then clean up in the consolation bracket against bad teams. If we were to use the NFL’s method of assigning draft picks, our hypothetical 7th place team would pick 10th.
If you read the revised value of a 1st round draft pick, you’ll know that the 10th overall pick is mediocre. In fact, the 10th overall pick its self (by ADP) has never been better than a weak hit. Middling teams getting mediocre picks means with a conventional NFL style pick assignment, middles will have to get worse before they can get better because top picks are only given to truly awful teams.
A middling team may in fact be incentivized to intentionally make their team worse and tank in order to speed along the process of improving. To rectify this, an en vogue solution in 2019 – when the league began – was to give the first overall pick to the winner of the consolation bracket.
In this system, middling teams are incentivized to try and win out their season, even if they don’t appear to be playoff bound. Additionally, a team who is close to playoff level is given a top asset, which in theory should elevate them to being a contender.
Assigning Picks 4 – 10
To recap, first pick goes to the consolation bracket winner; 11 – 16 go to playoff teams. This leaves picks 2 – 10. 2 and 3 will be reserved for the absolute worst teams in the league, which is covered below under Goal #3. That means we have to divide picks 4 – 10 among the rest of the consolation bracket teams.
Pick 10
Similar to Goal #1 (playoff teams), let’s start with the best teams in the bracket. We know that the winner gets the top pick. So what should the loser of the consolation finals get? The consolation loser should get the worst pick available because they are the best team without an assigned pick. We’re reverting to pretty straightforward logic here – give bad picks to good teams.
This team (officially finishing 8th place) has been incentivized to win at every step of the consolation bracket by chasing the opportunity to grab the first pick. Now that they’ve lost in the finals, what are we left with? The best team available which can bear the burden of pick 10.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kenjifonn | 7th | 1 |
| twatkins10 | 8th | 10 |
Picks 8 and 9
The matchup for 9th place are the next best teams without assigned draft spots, so these two teams should get the worst two picks available – 8 and 9. But remember we want to create an incentive to win every match. So we’ll give the winner pick 8 and the loser pick 9.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| TheCarlos | 9th | 8 |
| Team 8 | 10th | 9 |
Picks 4 and 7
We’ve covered the four best teams of the consolation bracket above. But what about the four worst teams? These are teams who lost their first matchup of the bracket and have moved on to the first stage of the losers bracket.
To create an incentive for these teams to try and win out, we need to give the best pick available to the team that performs the best in the losers bracket. That means winning in rounds 2 and 3 to finish 11th. The best draft spot available is 4, so 11th place will get pick 4.
The loser of this matchup (12h place) is still better than the other two teams vying for 13th place. So it makes sense that the loser should be saddled with the worst pick available – 7th.
All together, this means that if you lose in the first round of the consolation bracket you are still incentivized to win-out your last two matches. But we’re still making sure good teams get bad picks by giving pick 7 to 12th place. I know 12th place doesn’t seem like a good team, but this is meant relative to the four worse teams in the league.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Eliel2020 | 11th | 4 |
| LBtown | 12th | 7 |
Picks 5 and 6
Rounding out the consolation bracket is the matchup for 13th place. These teams lost in the first round in which their incentive was trying to claim the first overall. Then they lost in the second round in which their incentive was trying to secure the fourth overall.
This is easy. We’ll give the higher of our two remaining picks to the victorious team to provide an incentive to win. The loser will get the lower pick.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| RestingHollow | 13th | 5 |
| HaffCaff | 14th | 6 |
Full Consolation Bracket
Once we put all the puzzle pieces together, the consolation bracket assignments look like this:
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kenjifonn | 7th | 1 |
| twatkins10 | 8th | 10 |
| TheCarlos | 9th | 8 |
| Team 8 | 10th | 9 |
| Eliel2020 | 11th | 4 |
| LBtown | 12th | 7 |
| RestingHollow | 13th | 5 |
| HaffCaff | 14th | 6 |
Hopefully what looked before like a randomized order now makes complete sense.
Goal #3: Save Bad Teams
To prevent bad teams from languishing, we need to ensure that they get the opportunity to grab exceptional assets in the draft. The two worst teams in the league are 15th and 16th place. These teams don’t even get the chance to compete in the consolation bracket.
After being incentivized all year to win in hopes of making the consolation playoffs and claiming the first pick, their matches end at the finish of the regular season. Their assignments are simple. The worse team will get the best pick available.
| Team | Finish | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
| WyattBrady | 15th | 2 |
| Rallen | 16th | 3 |
Part 3: Going Forward
The 2023 ballot will include a proposal to eliminate the current system that assigns the first overall pick to the consolation bracket winner. In the proposed system, the consolation bracket would be given a different purpose, and draft picks would be assigned identically to the NFL.
There are many pros to the current system, but it is admittedly complex and unintuitive. A simpler system would come with it’s own pros and cons. These will be covered in the upcoming 2023 ballot article which will provide details on the good and the bad of the proposed system similar to last year’s ballot article. The 2023 proposals are scheduled to be polled in Week 12.
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