In the mock draft, I mentioned tiers of players. Wondering how those tiers break down? Below, I’ve created tiers based on average draft position. In other words, players who get drafted at similar spots have been put in the same tier. List is formatted as follows:
Tier based on all positions (ADP Range)
- Player Name (Position – Position’s Tier)
Tier 1 (#1 – #2)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB-1)
- Jonathan Taylor (RB-1)
Tier 2 (#3 – #7)
- D’Andre Swift (RB-2)
- J. K. Dobbins (RB-2)
- Cam Akers (RB-2)
- CeeDee Lamb (WR-1)
- Jerry Jeudy (WR-1)
Tier 3 (#8 – #10)
- Jalen Reagor (WR-2)
- Justin Jefferson (WR-2)
- Henry Ruggs III (WR-2)
Tier 4 (#11 – #14)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB-3)
- Michael Pittman (WR-3)
- Tee Higgins (WR-3)
- Denzel Mims (WR-3)
Tier 5 (#15 – #17)
- Joe Burrow (QB-1)
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR-4)
- Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR-4)
Tier 6 (#18 – #21)
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB-2)
- Zack Moss (RB-4)
- A.J. Dillon (RB-4)
- Bryan Edwards (WR-5)
Tier 7 (#22 – #28)
- Justin Herbert (QB-3)
- Antonio Gisbson (RB-5)
- Darrynton Evans (RB-5)
- Anthony McFarland (RB-5)
- Joshua Kelley (RB-5)
- Chase Clayppool (WR-6)
- K. J. Hamler (WR-6)
Tier 8 (#29 – #33)
- Van Jefferson (WR-7)
- Devin Duvernay (WR-7)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR-7)
- Tyler Johnson (WR-7)
- Cole Kmet (TE-1)
Tier 9 (#34 – #40)
- Jalen Hurts (QB-4)
- Jordan Love (QB-4)
- Deejay Dallas (RB-6)
- Eno Benjamin (RB-6)
- Lamical Perine (RB-6)
- Devin Asiasi (TE-2)
- Adam Trautman (TE-2)
Tier 10 (#41 – #50)
- Jason Huntley (RB-7)
- Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR-8)
- Quintez Cephus (WR-8)
- Gabriel Davis (WR-8)
- K.J. Hill (WR-8)
- Albert Okwuegbunam (TE-3)
- Thaddeus Moss (TE-3)
- Dalton Keene (TE-3)
- Brycen Hopkins (TE-3)
- Harrison Bryant (TE-3)
Anybody past this point has a near identical ADP that makeup a tier 11 of “everybody else.”
What does this matter?
Grading based on ADP relies on the wisdom of crowds – the concept that large groups of laymen are collectively smarter than individual experts. This is the same reason player rankings are based on an aggregate of expert rankings, rather than relying on a single expert.
If players have ADPs clustered together, it means that the wisdom of the crowd is grading them to be essentially equally good choices. So, for example, while Antonio Gibson placed #21 in the rookie rankings, and Darrynton Evans placed #27, their ADP suggests either one is as good a pick as the other. Besides identifying players ranked several places apart who are drafted similarly, tiers can also be used to identify the opposite – major differences between players ranked close together.
Ex. – Justin Jefferson is ranked #10, and Denzel Mims is ranked #12. But ADP perceives Jefferson as equal to #8 Henry Ruggs III, while Mims is perceived as equal to #14 Michael Pittman. You can use this information to know when it’s worth it to trade up a few positions to take a better tier of player.
But perhaps the simplest use of tiers is to know what players to research before the draft. If you have the #23 pick, you probably know it’s not worth assuming you’ll automatically be taking the #23 ranked player, Antonio Gibson. But if you’re wondering who else you should be looking at taking, try looking at the other players in the same tier (#22 – #28).
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