A poll was taken of Nilbog members after the 2024 regular season requesting their votes for the end of season awards. Below are the final results.
- General Manager of the Year
- Most Valuable Player
- Player of the Year
- Rookie of the Year
- Over Performer of the Year
- Comeback Player of the Year
- Methodology and Full Results
General Manager of the Year
@LBtown
Though considered a perennial wildcard contender, LBtown had never managed a winning record before 2024. This year the GM not only lived up to expectations but absolutely exceeded them, making it to the Goblin Bowl while retaining all their picks (plus an extra 2025 1st and 3rd).
Building Greatness
The path to greatness required patience for LBtown. Many of the team’s best assets were acquired in previous seasons and then sat on to incubate like a proverbial egg. Lesser GMs would have sold players like David Montgomery or Chuba Hubbard for pennies to try and scrape together the assets for a rebuild. But LBtown stood by his ragtag band of underestimated footballers and the return on investment has been incredible.
Below is a chart comparing positional rank on KeepTradeCut.com from the beginning of the season against the current rank to show how much these guys have beaten expectations and grown in value. Ex. Chuba Hubbard was ranked as RB #60 on KTC in late August. He is now ranked as RB #14.
| Player | August Rank | Current Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 60 | 14 |
| Chase Brown | 30 | 12 |
| David Montgomery | 23 | 16 |
| Courtland Sutton | 57 | 39 |
| Tucker Kraft | 24 | 7 |
| Zach Ertz | 47 | 38 |
I doubt there’s any other team whose players beat expectations as much as LBtown’s this year.
Draft Recap
In the first round of the 2024 draft LBtown selected Bo Nix (1.07) to fill the vacancy at QB. The analytics suggest this was the optimal pick. Nix finished 2nd among a strong rookie QB class and was an essential part of the team’s season.
In the second round LBtown took Xavier Legette (2.01). Although Legette’s career has been quiet so far, he has the highest KeepTradeCut value of any receiver taken after the first round, and thus we here at the Nilblog are rating this pick as excellent. In the third round LBtown chose Jalen McMillan (3.01) who has put together some big games this season for such a late pick. We also rate this pick as excellent, and are grading the GM’s 2024 draft as one of the best shows of stewardship in Nilbog history.
Trades
LBtown received the fourth highest grade this year in the Nilbog Trade Compendium. The most consequential trade was moving Rashee Rice for Courtland Sutton and the 2025 1.13. Rice only played three full games before missing the remainder of the season due to an LCL injury. Meanwhile Sutton, who was going as the WR #45 in redraft ADP at the beginning of the season, finished as the WR #15 this year. More importantly, he provided a deadly stack when paired with quarterback Bo Nix.
Another excellent trade was the choice to move Raheem Mostert for Keenan Allen. Mostert finished as RB #57 this year while Allen finished as WR #33. While Allen only had five games above 7 points, he was the WR #6 for weeks 12 – 16 providing plenty of sauce for LBtown’s playoff push.
Free Agency & Lineups
LBtown secured both Malik Willis and Mac Jones in free agency this year. Mac Jones has been a serviceable backup QB through the last few weeks of the season, and Malik Willis could possibly land a starting job somewhere in 2025.
The GM has performed above average at setting lineups, scoring 89% of their possible points this year.
Nilbog is proud to present LBtown with his first General Manager of the Year Award. The general manager will receive $60 and an engraved trophy.
Most Valuable Player
Lamar Jackson
2024 marked the second time in Nilbog history Lamar Jackson finished as the overall #1 player in points. He rushed for 52 yards/game, more than any other quarterback during the Nilbog regular season but still a few yards short of his 55 YPG career average. However, he passed for 253 yards/game, significantly better than his 194 YPG career average.
Lamar’s Efficiency Is Incredible
Jackson leads the league with a 8.8% TD rate this year while throwing 29 passes per game. That’s good for the 5th best TD rate among quarterbacks since 1976 if he maintains it through week 17. Over the course of the Nilbog regular season he threw for 29 touchdowns and rushed for 3. He is currently on pace to finish with the 6th best TD/Int ratio in NFL history and the 13th lowest interception percentage in NFL history.
Single Season TD Rate Leaders (Since 1976)
| Rank | Player | Year | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peyton Manning | 2004 | 9.9% |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | 2020 | 9.1% |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | 2019 | 9.0% |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 2011 | 9.0% |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson | 2024 | 8.8% |
| 6 | Tom Brady | 2007 | 8.7% |
| 7 | Patrick Mahom. | 2018 | 8.6% |
| 8 | Nick Foles | 2013 | 8.5% |
| 9 | Dan Marino | 1984 | 8.5% |
| 10 | Peyton Manning | 2013 | 8.3% |
Jackson is the first quarterback to ever be selected as Nilbog MVP. This recognition is representative of both an incredible season as well as a shift toward valuing quarterbacks more. It’s officially a QB league.
Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley has put together some incredible performances since he burst into the league in 2018. But I don’t think any of us were expecting a 27 year old running back who had only finished as a RB1 once since his rookie year to have the fourth best season in Nilbog history. Barkley’s rushing this year has been unstoppable, becoming just the ninth player in National Football League history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. His cap hit this year is the same as Dallas punter Bryan Anger. His Average Annual Earnings is a little less than Gabe Davis who averaged 24 yards/game this season.
Should Saquon Be The NFL’s MVP?
Barkley [understandably] isn’t even in the National Football League’s MVP discussion this year with the seasons Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are having. But if we compare him against Barry Sanders who co-won MVP in 1997 and Adrian Peterson who won MVP in 2012, his stats are very similar. Like Barkley, Sanders and Peterson racked up over 2,000 yards rushing on teams who depended on their playmaking ability.
I’m not trying to cherry pick stats, so for disclosure there have been six RB MVPs since 1986. The others are Terrell Davis (1998), Marshall Faulk (2000), Shaun Alexander (2005), and LaDainian Tomlinson (2006). However, each of these players won the award by tallying up incredible touchdown numbers as a result of being on the league’s leading offense. Faulk and Tomlinson in particular had a much more similar playstyle to Christian McCaffrey than to Saquon Barkley. When the teams of these players were near the goal line, they got the ball. When the 2024 Eagles are near the goal line, Jalen Hurts gets the ball. I doubt Barkley minds, but it makes stat-to-stat comparisons against LaDanian Tomlinson’s 31 TD season pretty unfair.
Running Back MVPs On Mid Teams
| Sanders | Peterson | Barkley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AP Yards | 2,358 | 2,314 | 2,283 |
| TDs | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 1st Downs | 98 | 99 | 94 |
| Y/A | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Succ.* | 45.1% | 46.8% | 52.5% |
Running Back MVPs on League Leading Offenses
| Davis | Faulk | Alex. | Tomlin. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP Yards | 2,225 | 2,189 | 1,958 | 2,323 |
| TDs | 23 | 26 | 28 | 31 |
| 1st Downs | 113 | 120 | 112 | 106 |
| Y/A | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Succ. | 50.3% | 55.7% | 52.7% | 47.7% |
Barkley was one of the most dynamic runners in NFL history this year. Like Barry Sanders dynamic. Marshall Faulk dynamic. Granted, purely on the basis of fantasy production there have been much better seasons by other running backs. And he probably won’t make the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But on the basis of real-world football ability, Barkley’s rushing this year was as good as it gets.
Rookie of the Year
Jayden Daniels
In the 2024 mock draft I said this about Jayden Daniels:
The second overall pick in the NFL draft, Jayden Daniels, is arguably the equal of Caleb Wiliams. He’s a dual threat playmaker with accurate first and second level passing. He makes good decisions and protects the football well. His arm strength is lacking when it comes to hitting deep routes in stride, but you can’t have everything. Daniels can make plays from the pocket, reading defenses like a book pre-snap and punishing zones with quick-release anticipation. If he senses an opening he also has the scrambling ability to really make defenses pay.
Well, I’m here to apologize because I got it wrong. Jayden Daniels’ arm strength isn’t lacking and his deep ball is fucking beautiful. He really does have it all. Everything else I wrote ended up 100% accurate though.
Daniels just had the best season by a rookie QB in Nilbog history, and he may have had the best season by a rookie QB in National Football League history. Seriously. I would need to dig deeper to be certain, but on paper his season has been better than every other great rookie QB season I could find (Marino, Manning, Roethlisberger, Wilson, Prescott, Stroud, etc.). Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck were the only ones that came close. I’ve compared them to Daniels (through 16 games) below. AP Yds are Passing Yards + Rushing Yards. Same for AP TDs.
All-Time Great Rookie QB Seasons
| Newton | Luck | RG3 | Daniels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP Yds | 4,757 | 4,629 | 4,015 | 4,394 |
| AP TDs | 35 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
| Ints | 17 | 18 | 5 | 9 |
| Comp% | 60.0% | 54.1% | 65.6% | 69.4% |
| Pass Succ.* | 44.2% | 43.4% | 45.6% | 47.7% |
| Rush Succ.* | 53.2% | 53.2% | 56.7% | 63.2% |
Cam Newton has some of the flashiest stats on the list, but the Panthers went 6-10 and his efficiency was questionable to say the least. Andrew Luck brought the Colts to 11-5, but he flat out had less touchdowns, more interceptions, and a much worse success rate compared to Daniels. RG3 really gives Jayden a run for his money, but I think I give the edge to JD1 for having more yards, more TDs, and a much higher success rate.
An Unrequested Disgression Into Rushing QBs
In particular, Daniels’ 63.2% success rate rushing is indicative of phenomenal decision making. Run-threat QBs, particularly rookies, often rely too much on their rushing ability when facing NFL coverages. An experienced QB can absolutely tear apart zone (see Brady, Tom). But disguised zone looks routinely get the best of rookie quarterbacks who aren’t used to finding the gaps in coverage on their pre-snap read. And it’s easy to beat man coverage in college when your receivers at LSU were Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. bullying cornerbacks who will never sniff an NFL practice squad. It’s a little different when you need Dyami Brown to beat Stephon Gilmore.
So what happens is instead of making tough passes, the rushing QB’s natural instinct is to try and punish the defense’s coverage by burning them on the ground. To be honest, this is usually a pretty effective strategy early in a quarterback’s career. But it can’t carry you through the playoffs against top defensive coordinators and it falls off hard around the age of 28.
A QB with a lower rushing success rate often indicates that they fall back on their rushing too much on 3rd downs when they should be looking to find a receiver past the sticks. This is a classic way to lose games as a rushing QB. Running for 10 yards on 3rd and 15 may lead to a nice box score, but it does fuck all for winning games. Daniels’ success rate is extraordinary, on par with Josh Allen (64.7%) who is the gold standard for smart running. This suggests he’s usually only taking the opportunity to rush when he’s read the defense as being vulnerable to a QB run pre-snap, as opposed to panicking and taking off. It’s very special to have that talent fully developed as a rookie.
Over Performer of the Year
Chase Brown
According to Fantasy Pros, Chase Brown’s ADP in redraft this year was 37. Oh wait, my bad, it was RB37, or 103 overall. That’s pick 8.07 in a 12 team league. How did we get it so wrong?
First, Zack Moss was expected to be the Bengals’ starting running back this year. Some even expected a bell cow workload. That’s how the year began, with Moss getting 33 carries over the first three games to Brown’s 14. But in week four, Brown and Moss each had 15 carries. Over the next four weeks, Brown outcarried Moss 49 – 26 and put up 11.25 PPG. It seemed Brown had won the starting role for the early downs and Moss would be used as a 3rd down back.
Moss was put on IR in Week 9, and Brown was given a bell cow role averaging 18 carries and 7 targets per game. Over the five game stretch to end the Nilbog regular season, Brown averaged 21.1 PPG without any games under 17 points. It’s unclear if he’ll have the starting job next season, but Brown has proven himself as a quality NFL running back.
Comeback Player of the Year
Sam Darnold
The man, the myth, the ghost buster. Folk tradition says that Sam Darnold was born a mortal man, but you would never guess it watching GEQBUS. After a pre season injury took out J.J. McCarthy, Sam Darnold stepped up to show Minnesota what a real quarterback looks like (something they haven’t experienced since Green Bay loaned them Brett Favre).
His stats are impressive, sure. But if you actually watch Darnold play this year he’s just been on a different level. He absolutely rips through man coverage in ways that require balls of steel. This man is willing to throw any pass in any situation – and it’s usually placed perfectly.
This vote was very nearly unanimous, and I don’t think there was ever any doubt who was going to win.
Methodology and Full Results
Nilbog members were able to assigned ranked choice votes to their top three candidates in each award. Members were not required to cast the maximum of three votes for each category. Ten members voted for GM of the Year. Nine members voted for the other awards.
A first place vote is worth three points, a second place vote is worth two points, and a third place vote is worth one point. The candidate with the most points wins the award. The maximum possible points was 30 for GMOTY and 27 for all other awards. All candidates who received at least one vote are listed below.
General Manager of the Year
The General Manager who had the greatest positive impact on their team over the course of the regular season.
- LBtown (20)
- DReid (18)
- TheCarlos (14)
- Eliel (3)
- PlayboyHeff (3)
- RAllen (1)
- Kenjifonn (1)
Most Valuable Player
The most valuable asset in dynasty fantasy football as of the end of the regular season.
- Lamar Jackson (15)
- Ja’Marr Chase (13)
- Josh Allen (10)
- Saquon Barkley (8)
- Justin Jefferson (7)
- Jayden Daniels (1)
Player of the Year
The player who has had the largest positive impact on their team over the course of the regular season.
- Saquon Barkley (22)
- Ja’Marr Chase (14)
- Josh Allen (11)
- Lamar Jackson (7)
Rookie of the Year
The most impressive rookie from this year’s draft class.
- Jayden Daniels (22)
- Brock Bowers (21)
- Bo Nix (6)
- Malik Nabers (3)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (1)
- Caleb Williams (1)
Over Performer of the Year
The player who has most out-performed pre-season expectations.
- Chase Brown (12)
- Jonnu Smith (11)
- Chuba Hubbard(7)
- Baker Mayfield (6)
- Terry McLaurin (3)
- Jerry Jeudy (3)
- Darnell Mooney (2)
- Bucky Irving (2)
- Saquon Barkley (2)
- Justin Fields (2)
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (1)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (1)
- Malik Willis (1)
- Josh Jacobs (1)
Comeback Player of the Year
A player who has shown perseverance in overcoming adversity, such as in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year; a severe injury; or simply poor performance.
- Sam Darnold (25)
- Kareem Hunt (5)
- Kyler Murray (4)
- Jameis Winston (4)
- Aaron Rodgers (4)
- Jonnu Smith (3)
- Joe Burrow (3)
- Zach Ertz (2)
- Mark Andrews (2)
- Jerry Jeudy (2)
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